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There are two types of service associated to the Bulletin:

  1. The bulletin itself.
  2. Results updated between bulletins.

[1] The Bulletin contains the following:

  • Inflation forecasts broken down by sector, using advanced indicator and changing regime econometric models, for:
    • SPAIN
    • EMU
    • EU COUNTRIES
    • U.S.
  • Spanish macroeconomic forecasts.
  • EMU macroeconomic forecasts.
  • Forecasts on inflation in the Community of Madrid, and on its prices in relation to Spain and the European Monetary Union.
  • Results and Analysis of the Bulletin’s own quarterly survey on expectations in the financial and stock exchange sector.

[2] Service providing result updates between bulletins. It includes:

a) Updated forecast service (by FAX or E-MAIL):

  • 24 hours after the Spanish CPI is published.
  • 48 hours after the harmonised European CPI is published.
  • 24 hours after the U.S. CPI is published.

b) Updated diagnosis service (by E-MAIL):

  • E-mail notification of updates on the Bulletin web page.
  • E-mail update on the diagnosis for European inflation, 4 hours after the harmonised European inflation figures are published.

The Bulletin currently publishes the following forecasts and analyses:

(1) Inflation forecast for the aggregate, and breakdown by sector and country, with a diagnosis of the economic variables on which the forecasts are based, and their implications for European monetary policy, plus an analysis of the convergence of inflation, by country;

(2) Forecast of gross domestic product in the euro area, and a breakdown into supply and demand components;

(3) Forecasts of the industrial production index and economic sentiment indicators.

(4) United States: forecast of aggregate inflation and a breakdown into over 20 sectors, providing a more precise diagnosis of the future multiplying effect of recent shocks in the prices in different sectors on aggregate inflation.

(5) Spain: forecasts of aggregate inflation from a breakdown into over 30 sectors, with a diagnosis of the convergence of inflation with Europe at an aggregate and sector-specific level.

(6) Forecasts of the Spanish macroeconomic table not only considering National Accounts figures but also labour market variables, costs and budgetary disequilibria and the balance of payments.

(7) An analysis of the situation of the Spanish economy.

(8) Autonomous Region of Madrid: forecasts of aggregate and sector-specific inflation, with an analysis of sectorial divergence from Spain and Europe.

(9) Forecasts of the macroeconomic table and the labour market in the Autonomous Region of Madrid.

(10) Surveys: a quarterly financial survey among over a hundred Spanish individuals or institutions related to the financial markets in Spain.

(11) Discussions: in a discussions section, the Bulletin often publishes the work of renowned national and international academics and economists. On the occasion of the 100th issue of the BIMA, a special edition included contributions by Michael Boldrin, Juan Carlos Delrieu, José Luís Feito, Clive Granger, David Hendry, Massimiliano Marcelino, Vicente Salas, Miguel Sebatían, Pedro Solbes, David Taguas, Ken Wallis and Arnold Zellner.

[3] Update, consultancy and research support service:

  • Forecast and diagnosis update service
  • Immediate access to the Bulletin's working papers.
  • Access to the Bulletin's database, upon individual request.
  • Consultancy service to Bulletin experts for related issues.
  • Inclusion of logo, in the Bulletin and on the Internet, in the list of institutions supporting the research performed by the Bulletin.

 

Method employed

The Laboratory has developed a quantitative method for analysing inflation, based solely on econometric models.

The basic points of the method are as follows:

  • Use a functionally and geographically disaggregated data set, adding the long-term restrictions between the components to the corresponding econometric model.
  • Use the greatest possible time disaggregation in short-term forecasting.
  • Include specific and general indicators in the explanation of the different components of the aggregate phenomenon.
  • Use non-linear formulations when necessary.
  • Combine forecasts from different models if this improves the accuracy of the forecasting paths, normally constructed for the current and following years.
  • If, as it often the case, congruent econometric models cannot be built using the highest level of frequency disaggregation, since they require more aggregation, relate previous forecasts to those of a congruent model and thus provide an economic explanation ot the former.

This method is being used to analyse European inflation for Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices, to forecast future values and to generate a diagnosis with which one can contemplate possible changes in European Monetary Policy in advance.

It is also used to analyse inflation in the U.S. By comparing inflation forecasts in the above economic areas, we are able to determine whether one area in a specific sector is at an advantage over another.

It is also used to analyse Spainsh inflation and, comparing it with Europe, the competitiveness of the different sectors of the Spanish economy.

Finally, the method has been developed for application to the Autonomous Regions in Spain and is already being applied to the Madrid region, providing forecasts of inflation and relative prices with Spain and Europe.