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The average inflation forecasts in the euro area are 0.5% (±0.09) for 2014 and 1.1% (±0.88) for 2015. Average annual inflation will be 1.4% by 2017.

The euro area HICP grew by an annual rate of 0.4% in August, 0.1 pp more than the EUROSTAT flash estimate and our forecast. The rate’s monthly variation was 0.1%.

The upwards innovation was largely found in manufactured goods. The other groups presented insignificant errors.

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CPI - The significant innovation in core inflation reduces average inflation forecast.

A significat downward innovation was observed in core inflation in August, due to the behaviour of several groups, being Rents the most important.

Average inflation expectations decrease consequently, even so, remaining within the interval proposed by the FED.

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PCE - The medium-term expectations regarding the core PCE remain unaltered despite the upwards revision of the figures for the last 18 months.

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The Department of Commerce revised the figures for the last few years, with an average increase of 0.1 pp for 2013 and the first few months of 2014.

The June core PCE was worse than forecast: 0.14% monthly increase versus 0.08%, with the annual rate falling from 1.52% to 1.49%. 

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